Over the years, I’ve gone as low as 9 for 24, up to a career best last year of picking 17 of 24 (71%). The Oscars are a cruel mistress. Just when you think, “Yeah! I got this,” Crash comes along and wins Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich and Capote everyone else, Sandra Bullock beats out Carey Mulligan for Best Actress, or Million Dollar Baby dominates over all contenders. So here’s my attempt to tell the Academy I know who should or will win.

Best Picture: Birdman

Best Director: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Best Actor: Michael Keaton for Birdman

Best Actress: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay: Damien Chazelle for Whiplash

Best Original Screenplay: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign Film: Ida

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Best Short Film – Animated: Feast

Best Short Film – Live Action: The Phone Call

Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen & Anna Pinnock for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Costume Design: Milena Canonero for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Make-up/Hair: Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou & David White for Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Film Editing: Sandra Adair for Boyhood

Best Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett & Erik Winquist for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing: Richard King for Interstellar

Best Sound Mixing: Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins & Thomas Curley for Whiplash
*this is the end scene, sooooo Spoiler Alert!*

Best Original Score: Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything

Best Original Song: “Glory” from Selma; Music & Lyrics by John Legend & Common