Will Win is my official pick. Should Win is what I would vote for were I a voting member.
Best Picture
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: The Shape of Water
Also Nominated: Call Me By Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Should Win: Del Toro
Also Nominated: Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk; Jordan Peele – Get Out; Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird; Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Best Lead Actress
Will Win: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Should Win: Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Also Nominated: Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird; Margot Robbie – I, Tonya; Meryl Streep – The Post
Best Lead Actor
Will Win: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Should Win: Oldman
Also Nominated: Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread; Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out; Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Also Nominated: Mary J. Blige – Mudbound; Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread; Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Rockwell (though I wouldn’t scoff at Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project)
Also Nominated: Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Jordan Peele – Get Out
Should Win: Literally any of the five nominees
Also Nominated: Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon – The Big Sick; Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird; Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water; Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: James Mangold, Scott Frank & Michael Green – Logan
Also Nominated: Dee Reese & Virgil Williams – Mudbound; Molly Bloom & Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game; Scott Neustadter & Michael Weber – The Disaster Artist
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco
Also Nominated: Boss Baby; Ferdinand; Breadwinner; Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: The Square – Sweden
Should Win: The Square – Sweden
Also Nominated: A Fantastic Woman – Chile; Loveless – Russia; On Body and Soul – Hungary; The Insult – Lebanon
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Icarus
Should Win: Icarus
Also Nominated: Faces Places; Strong Island; Abacus: Small Enough To Jail; Last Men In Aleppo
Best Original Score
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water
Should Win: Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water
Also Nominated: Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk; Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread; Carter Burwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; John Williams – Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Remember Me” – Coco
Should Win: “Remember Me” – Coco
Also Nominated: “Mighty River” – Mudbound; “This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman; “The Mystery of Love” – Call Me By Your Name; “Stand Up For Something” – Marshall
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Traffic Stop
Also Nominated: Edith + Eddie; Heroin(e); Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405; Knife Skills
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Dekalb Elementary
Also Nominated: The Eleven O’Clock; My Nephew Emmett; Watu Wote/All of Us; The Silent Child
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Also Nominated: Lou; Negative Space; Garden Party; Revolting Rhymes
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Lee Smith – Dunkirk
Also Nominated: Baby Driver; The Shape of Water; I, Tonya; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Production Design
Will Win: Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau & Jeff Melvin – The Shape of Water
Also Nominated: Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Beauty and the Beast; Dunkirk
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
Also Nominated: The Shape of Water; Dunkirk; Darkest Hour; Mudbound
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Joel Whist – War for the Planet of the Apes
Also Nominated: Blade Runner 2049; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Richard King & Alex Gibson – Dunkirk
Also Nominated: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Tim Cavagin & Julian Slater – Baby Driver
Also Nominated: Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Blade Runner 2049; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Hair & Make-Up
Will Win: David Malinkowski, Lucy Sibbick & Anita Burger – Darkest Hour
Also Nominated: Wonder; Victoria and Abdul
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread
Also Nominated: Beauty and the Beast; Darkest Hour; Victoria and Abdul; The Shape of Water
The Empty Theatre 
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